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Originally Posted by Gander
Morning lines are one man's opinion of how he thinks the public will bet. Its made 36 hours prior to post and means nothing. The guys in Vegas who do the point spreads are real good at it. The guys who typically do the ones for horse racing are novices.
I got a real laugh yesterday hanging around with non track goers telling me such and such horse is going off at this price, 4 hours before the race even went off. I tried telling them to ignore the morning lines but they continuously were giving the morning line odds out all day long instead of what was currenlt on the monitors, you know the real odds?
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So his opinion is the public will not back a horse in an optional claiming race that has already won a graded stakes, ran in the Kentucky Derby, Blue Grass and just ran a solid 3rd to Pyro and My Pal Charlie.
It just makes me think two things, either this guy wants a nice price on this horse or he knows something is wrong with him. Id feel a little more comfortable with the race if he was 3-1 or 7/2. But like you said ML are usually guides and I rarely go by them either.