[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me try this; and this will be contrary to what DrugS' position is. See, one of the problems here is that everyone pretty much thinks that the BEL turf course is playing like it has in the past. Fact is, it's not. Being outside, with a clear run DOES NOT guarantee that a horse will get up, like it has all these years. In fact, a high number of races are won with inside, ground saving, drafting trips. Horses going without cover on the backstretch and taking wide turns are not getting the best of it (allowing for those cases where they get perfect setups and the race falls apart).

I've attached the chart for the race. This is just about the ugliest TYPE of race you can get ---this is the TAMPA specialty on the turf.

This particular subtype is not an ideal setup for a closer. The race collapsed but only at the top end, setting up a perfect trip for the horse that did the LEAST RUNNING, the horse closest to the suicide pair, the winner. Curlin was asked too soon; I suppose he had to be, to make up the ground. He's in a drive from the early turn to just before the wire, when Alvarado lets up. That's TOO long. He moved BEFORE the winner, who was AHEAD of HIM and absolutely had to inherit the lead. Castellano sat chilly and asked AFTER Curlin. How the **** does he get a good trip? Moreover, if the race set up nicely for a closer, then Better Talk Now certainly runs Curlin down for 2nd. Add hitting the gate and coming out slowly, and having some expected footwork issues, and it wasn't a garden party for Curlin.

Thank you for the thought out response.