CD 7F Track Profile - track has been relatively unkind to front runners over the last month but over the last year it has been fair. The rail and extreme outside post have underperformed a bit over the year and it is especially bad in 10+ horse fields where the outside post is 0 for 16. Other post positions are fair.
Sinister 8-1 - I think his last figure is a bit suspect since it came on a drying out track. The track seemed to favor closers early in the card and became more speed favoring as the track dried. The effort wasn't terrible, broke slow, saved ground and swung wide and nearly got carried into the stands by the bearing out front runners. The short layoff is a concern as I wonder how much the effort set him back. Add to that a tough post and that he seems to close from the clouds and I will pass.
War Ruler 6-1 - Can't completely overlook that he comes out of a maiden claimer but last race was very impressive. Blinkers woke the horse up and he was wide the entire trip and pulled away late from the favored speed. Won against the track bias that day as speed seemed to hold very well. Julien sticks and extra distance shouldn't hurt. Contender.
Coach Ryan 8-1 - Amoss winning almost everything so have to strongly consider. Got a very nice ground saving trip last out but wasn't able to get clear until late. Accelerated very nicely when clear. It was a small field with some suspect entries though. Improving pattern and with that trainer he may take another step forward. Consider for exotics.
Niobrara 10-1 - Was 1.75 lengths back of War Ruler two back and had no excuses. That performance was maybe more impressive than his winning effort last out where he raced 3 wide stalking slow fractions in a bad maiden claimer. Would have to improve big to be a contender and with 3 races since May 11th I don't see it. Don't like the lack of workouts either. Toss.
EZ Phone Home 6-1 - Tired at a mile last out but got no help from Elvis who doesn't believe in saving ground. Two back Kent gave the horse no chance hustling him to the front and dueling the entire way. Three back was best effort but still not enough. Cutback is a little interesting but horse has even running style and doesn't seem to pass much. He won't lead here. Consider underneath but tossing as a win contender.
Dr. Nick 12-1 - Yeesh look at those layoff lines. Faced some classy horses as a 2yo. Last out wasn't hopeless, made a small move on the turn and then passed tired ones in the stretch. Horse probably needed one and should improve here but doubtful that it is enough. If he gets completely lost on the board I could see taking a small stab, maybe underneath. Toss as win contender.
Knock Out Cat 5-1 - Interesting trip in debut. Got the perfect setup as he stayed behind the speed horses who went out in blazing fractions. Rail opened up in stretch but horse had no interest and ended up having to check to get outside. Ran green and could obviously use one. 2nd time starter is one of my favorite angles and there could be big improvement considering connections and pedigree. Certainly a contender but I don't want at too short a price.
Siena Canyon 12-1 - Last race was pretty impressive. Caught a flyer from the gate, settled 3 wide and was very game down the stretch. Bumped hard and deservedly moved up. That race wasn't that fast and will need to move up again. Trainer at 29% for the meet. Very interesting, definitely a sleeper.
Fit For A Fight 9-2 - The 9/2 line is a joke. Horse was 2nd at 50-1 last out but looked like a drunk driver coming down the stretch bearing out and weaving all over the lane. Long layoff before last and no works between. Might get the front but won't last long. Toss.
The Darp 7-2 - Certainly comes out of good races but coming off another layoff it is doubtful the horse will be geared for best effort. Combine the outside post and poor odds and this is a horse who I let beat me. Toss.
Win Contenders:
1. War Ruler
2. Knock Out Cat
Sleeper:
Siena Canyon
Include Underneath:
Coach Ryan
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