Beyer "improved" his figure making in the years after Picking Winners. In that book his methodology was based strictly on the times and variants. He moved to a "projection" method later which introduced an element of subjectivity to his numbers. Now the Beyer associate responsible for each track includes an assessment for how fast they think the race should have been run into their final assignment of the variant and figures. Not as cut and dried as it once was, but probably a bit more accurate. I would still highly recommend reading Picking Winners to understand the nuts and bolts of how it all got started.
As for the value of a length in points. It varies by distance. A length at 6f is obviously a greater percentage of the overall distance run than a length at 10f. Also consider that it takes longer to run each subsequent furlong as the races get longer.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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