Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12
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Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20
Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.
Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28