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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't think pedigree is much of a factor in the majority of races run at each track.
However, besides being a relative of Marty Wolfsen and Affirmed's owners -this guy's claim to fame is winning a big national handicapping tournament in Vegas.
It would take a sample of thousands of races bet before a field of several hundred bettors would sort themselves out - and you could clearly judge who is better than who. The handicapping tournaments are all absolute stab fests. You are dealing with less than 50 races at most - and it becomes a game of who can reach and catch the biggest bomb. Solid $12 winners that should have paid $7 won't do you any good - but helter skelter stabs in wide open races that hit and pay $40 will help carry you to victory.
It would be like taking hundreds of baseball players - giving them 20 pitches and trying to determine who is the best by who hits the most home runs. Basically - they are home run derby type contests.
I say this because a good understanding of pedigree actually becomes a very decisive edge in such a contest. Sneaky first timers bred to be quick do sometimes win and pay $40. Horses with sneaky good turf breeding trying the turf for the first time do sometimes win and pay big. Horses with subtle distance pedigrees who fail in sprints can also make big form reversals on the big stretch out.
You almost have to ignore all the staple fundamentals of handicapping and just stab away at price horses lost in the betting shuffle of wide open races to win these tourneys. It's kind of a perverted way to determine who is better than who.
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i always look at pedigree.... pedigree was the main reasson i liked willsboro point the other day at 20 something -1 and victorious affair today at 18-1