The oversimplified version:
Making a profit is about just 3 things.
Accurately estimating the probability of an outcome, and accurately Low-estimating the payouts for that outcome after OFF, and Finally using your two estimates to make a wagering decision.
1. Low-Estimating payouts is fairly easy, although it requires familiarity with the specific pools and tracks as far as how the late money plays out.
2. Wagering Decisions can be done with a simple requirement based rule, or formula.
3. The step that require skill is accurately estimating the probability of an outcome.
If you do the above three steps accurately, you will turn a profit at this game. Everything else is about where to look, how to budget your time and money, and keeping your sanity.
The guy in the video doesn't strike me as some handicapping genius, but his advice at the end was golden. - Get with some good horseplayers and discuss the races. Save the ego for the occasional joke or jab.
If I tried hard to give the guy extra credit, maybe you could say that he alluded to the following advice:
understanding the various speed figures and sheets and graphs are a good place to look for Plays.
IF a horse is supposed to bounce on a graph or sheet = it probably pays to estimate your own probability of that horse's chances.
Same thing with a High or Low Beyer fig.
If the fig will affect how the public wagers, you ought to be aware of when that is happening.
|