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Originally Posted by The Bid
Eric
With horses being sent to the shed so quickly its almost better for history that Big Brown did'nt win. Had he won the Triple Crown the comparisions to Seattle Slew would have been cut in dry in some peoples minds. That would have been extremely unfair to the true immortals of the game.
Hopefully the humiliation suffered after connections shot their mouths off for 3 weeks leading into the Belmont, will be too much for the egomaniacs involved to swollow. If that is the case they will almost certainly keep the horse in training and pursue Curlin.
If Mr Clay bought in 10PCT at 5 million his investment has been chopped in half. Right now I cannot imagine Big Brown standing for more than 30k. Mr Clay is essentially in on that horse standing at well over 30k. He needs to do more on the track to make the math work.
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I agree. I wasn't disagreeing with you, but I was with the comments you were refuting. I also very much agree with the history aspect. However, had he won -- the comparisons to Seattle Slew might have been cut and dry in "some peoples minds" -- BUT not with commercial breeders, people who breed to race, etc. and those who would actually be breeding to the horse. Breeders, farms, etc. have often said "I don't care what people think . . . I only care what breeders, my clients, buyers and mare owners think"
Humilation aside, at this stage, in my mind this has nothing to do with persuing Curlin. All the nonsese, hypotheticals, and what if's? OK. If Big Brown would have won, gone on to win the Travers, kept going, etc., stepped up to take on older horses, or not and looked to do it in the BC Classic (which I don't believe Curlin is committed to just yet -- assuming he comes back fine, healthy, etc.) -- then it becomes about Curlin. Yeah, OK. But, as you said, it ain't that now, LOL.
The stud deal aspect. Well, it's interesting how the math played out before the race, and after. I very clearly understand the structure, implications, etc. of the deal (not the specifics on this one, but I understand how the economics work out, the formulaic strucuture, etc.) I posted about this on the other thread. I don't want to get into details, but, whatever % the farm bought -- there wasn't very strong indications of interest to buy shares before the Belmont. I think many of the breeders -- the real candidates to buy shares -- wanted to wait. If the horse won, kept going, outperformed his pedigree, foot problems, and everything else, then the individual warrants the deal. If not, the jury was and is still out. He wins, I think the stud fee would have come close to justifying the share price -- but my opinion doesn't count. I'm not a buyer of a share, or a season buyer, breeder, etc. And more importating, even if the justification was close -- the real buyers weren't there.
If he retires now -- IMO, they'll stand him for more than $30k. I think they'll make deals, but you are of course absolutely correct, the math doesn't work at 30 or 75 for that matter. At this point, it's all moot. We will soon see, or at least I hope so.
Eric