If the question is about who will have the first runner in the Derby then you need to look at who owns/trains alot of the colts by the 4 sires. Any sire that Todd Pletcher, for example buys is more likely to be represented in the Derby than a sire he doesn't buy.
I have not really read up on what trainers have shown interest in the offspring of the 4 stallions mentioned.
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RIP Monroe.
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