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Originally Posted by justindew
I just thought it was worth noting that some of the recent Belmont upsets were pulled off by horses that were the only/among the only Grade I winners in the field, besides the favorite. I'm a tad surprised that no one else finds this notworthy, but whatever.
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What about Victory Gallop or Touch Gold or Colonial Affair? None were Grade 1 winners prior to the Belmont.
It's fairly obvious you are trying to make a case for Tale of Ekati, so why don't you just present your case for his chance instead of having us back into it for you?
And likening TOE with LDK and Birdstone off a single trait (a Grade 1 win) is not enough support the idea that TOE has what it takes to pull off the upset. Both LDK and Birdstone, unlike TOE, were in many ways coming into top form just prior to the Belmont. Lemon Drop Kid made a belated 3yo debut in a Gulfstream allowance, registering an easy win. His next start was the Blue Grass, were he made no impression. He started in the Derby anyways (as part of the mutual field), despite appearing on paper not to have the proper conditioning, promptly drew the extreme outside post, and proceeded to pick off tired horses to split the field in 9th. One could easily suggest in retrospect that the effort was a mere tune-up for later. LDK made another start before the Belmont, in the Peter Pan, and ran another "prep" like race, showing more speed than in the Derby, making a middle move, and then hanging the last bit to be a close 3rd to Jerkens' Best of Luck and the Phipps' Treasure Island. Whereas in the Derby, LDK had just 2 preps in him, he now had 4 leading into the Belmont (the same track where he had earned his Grade 1 at 2) where he put it all together. He held his form beyond that race, too, placing in the Jim Dandy and taking the Travers before hitting a brick wall versus his elders.
Birdstone, too, gave up a lot of short-term conditioning on the Derby trail, making a late February 3yo debut with an easy allowance win. At the time, he was the winterbook favorite for the Derby. His next start was a total disaster, coming in the Jim Beam, where the track was sealed in anticipation of a rainstorm. Birdstone ran so horrible that he went from Derby favorite to goat in one shot. He really dropped off the face of the Earth when Zito didnt bring him out for another prep prior to the Derby. In the Derby itself, Birdstone at 20-1 ran a race similar to LDK, picking off a few down the lane to split the field in 8th. Returning to the scene of his 2yo Grade 1 win (the Champagne), he fulfilled the promise many had anticipated just a few months before by taking the Belmont. Sparsely campaigned (odd for a Zito horse really), he returned to win the Travers.
TOE's road to the Derby, similarly light in races like the other two, seems to have been a bit of a rush job. Training poorly in FL, he was sent to the wolves first out in the LA Derby and got trounced. Shipped to NY, he came to hand quickly apparently, and was able to grind out the Wood win. The race, however, was unceremoniously bashed by just about everyone timewise and, visually, the horses were staggering to the wire. TOE came back in the Derby and ran a decent race to be 4th, but given his pedigree and the fact that he appeared to be in peak form at the time of the Derby (and doesn't now with that horrendous 1:18+ 6f drill), one can't really anticipate the upside the LDK or Birdstone had.