[SentToStud]

My take on a good betting race. Good luck to you.

1. Ryan’s For Real is a nice horse. In the Shaeffer last May he ran an ok 3rd to Flashy Bull and Hesanoldsalt. RFR did have a great trip in the race and there wasn’t much behind him; just Take the Bluff and Sunriver (who didn’t run two steps) RFR started showing more speed the day he beat Coyote and Sara Lullaby. RFR pretty much duplicated that race at Hawthorne last month when he beat Fairbanks (who doesn’t beat Fairbanks?) I believe the Hartack set up great for RFR 2nd off a layoff and coming off the sprint prep. He’s hard to knock having won nicely from the rail more than once.

2. Gottcha Gold pretty much had to win the GP race with Frost Giant not living up to hype, Better Than Bonds running poorly and Hunting just way too far back. Mr Umphrey, at 40-1, set the pace and was an easy 2nd. He just had a great trip and never saw any outside pressure. But he always runs his race (toss the SA tires race) and he’s finished in front of some very nice horses like Lawyer Ron and Discreet Cat. He shows only two works since his last race 8 weeks ago. I’m not sure I believe that. Maybe this is a prep for Monmouth. I hope not.

3. Student Council. Yeah, he beat AP Arrow going 10F last September but if that race was 50 yards shorter, AP would not have beat Miami Sunrise. He’s done nothing since but still he’ll probably take some action off that race and the Pac Classic win. Toss.

4. A.P. Arrow. In the Donn, only he and Spring at Last got the trips they needed to run well (aside from Daaher who tanked and Kiss the Kid). He probably lost that race because he was giving conditioning to Spring at Last and if you toss his two races on the tires, his form looks even better. Then again, he’s going to be 3/2 or so, probably was pointed hard for the Dubai race, there's the Dubai bounce factor, he’s never run over the track and he shows only two very recent works over the past six weeks. Most of all, the Foster is in four weeks at a track/distance he’s won at and for three times the purse money. His running style fits but he’s beatable. Top two toss.

5. Xchanger. Interesting he went off at the same price (7-1) in the BC Dirt Mile as did Gottcha Gold, despite never running on an off track. But he did run very well at the Meadowlands to D Stripes and Magna Grad, so I guess that explains it. Then again, he figured 3rd in that race, given Utopia basically ran backwards. I think his last three races are not overly unreasonable to toss; the BC Slop, the Cigar Mile (his 10th and, mercifully, last start of the year) and the sprint prep on the tires.

6. Wanderin Boy. Ran a huge 2nd at Saratoga but everything behind him; Papi Chulo, Magna Grad, Diamond Stripes, Flashy Bull didn’t do very much running. He did fend off Fairbanks early, for what that’s worth. His other good on paper G1 2nd to Bernardini (1/9) was really not much as the second choice Dylan Thomas trailed the whole way and got beat by 30 lengths at 4-1. He won the Alysheba last year in the slop off a layoff but this year got beat at 9/5 in the identical situation. His best race ever is possibly his 2006 Pimlico Special 2nd at odds-on to Invasor. I am tossing him.

7. Grasshopper. I’m ok with him losing at odds-on in 3 of his 4 last starts. But I’m not ok with him running back in a pretty tough race in 14 days at what looks to me like 5/2. I also thought that while Divine Park is a nice horse, Grasshopper should have stayed closer to him as they moved into the turn in his last race. It’s interesting that Howard passed on the Keeneland race on April 20th to ship to Belmont for the race on the 30th.

8. Sir Whimsey. Hardly impressed by his GPH win as Kiss the Kid and Leonatus A came up pretty empty after a soft pace. Whimsey held off Fairbanks (who doesn’t?) who was 6/5. I can’t see him not being further back than any of his starts this year and he’ll have too many decent horses to pass in front of him. Toss.

9. Temporary Saint. Beat such stalwarts as Magna Grad (5/2), Nite Light (5/2) and Wafi City (7/2) as well as Evening Attire. Nice claim and all but I’m not very impressed. Neither is Chuck Lopez who jumps ship. Toss.

Gottcha Gold to win.
Ex boxes: Gottcha Gold with Ryan’s For Real, Xchanger and Grasshopper.