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Originally Posted by Split Rock
I do agree that having a lot of stock, a lot of money and savvy condition book readers at their disposal is an advantage. However, there are hundreds of operations across the country with the same set up and they do not win at a 70% clip for such an extended period of time. In my opinion, given the uncontrollable variables (weather, horse showing up dull, disinterested, traffic problems, bad rides, on and on) it is highly unlikely someone could win at over 30% while being totally legitimate, not to mention winning over 70%.
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I guess this is where I keep finding myself disconnected from your side. He started on average 20 horses per month through the beginning of the Arlington meet, right, and has started 17 so far at that meet. I don't understand the hand wringing over him winning over 70% for "such an extended period of time," when the meet has been ongoing for seven racing days and the stock lining up against him is inarguably cheaper than it will be at any point this entire summer. Add to that the fact that he's largely winning in fairly cheap claiming races, where the stock in Chicago is even weaker than the general horse population at Arlington.
He's winning at a high clip overall this year, because his hot streak at the beginning of Arlington is obviously contributing greatly, because he didn't start a huge number of horses prior to the meet. In two weeks, he's started about 20% of his runners for 2008 so far.
If he won at 70% for the entire meet, I'd obviously be joining on your side in this. But he goes through this streak every summer, just like he goes through the cold streak every summer. It's only painfully obvious because it's the beginning of the meet, so his winning percentage looks outrageous. So I guess my problem is that if we're going to harp on his win percentage, let's say that you cannot win with 35% of your starters in a year, no way. Let's not say that you can't win with 70% of your starters, because his hot streak at the meet opening is an anamoly, and it will level off considerably. If you look back at this thread six weeks from now, the 70% number will be long, long, long gone, and the focusing on that number will seem silly.
But if 35% is a number that you don't think can be honestly acheived, then that's a different story and what I'd consider to be an honest debate.