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Originally Posted by horseofcourse
Big Brown is excellent, but at this point he is just winning. I looked at the Beyers and they gave them pretty formful numbers....109 for big Brown...102 for Eight Belles, and I guess 97 for Denis of Cork. So for the top 3, those are pretty much what they've run in their prior career best or only minimal improvement in the case of the top 2. So a top 3 year old running 105-110 Beyers is really nothing extraordinary at all and pretty typical of what we see in Derby preps and Derby's of winners. Big Brown is certainly very nice, but I haven't seen anything separating him from other recent Derby winners. And in that vain, I see nothing at all guaranteeing a triple crown. Absolutely nothing.
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You are correct, but I would add that the wide trip would probably make this the equivalent of perhaps a 114 Beyer if comparing it to Street Sense's run last year.
I agree, too, that there is no guarantee of a triple crown. That's more or less my point. If he DOES prevail in the next two, he would hardly be the bum of the TC winners.
Do you think we've seen his best in his 4th start? He's an April foal, and while it's tempting to pause for an April foals' joke, I'll note this instead: There was just 1 other April foal in the race and 2 May foals. The other 16 horses were older. He's catching up.
--Dunbar