[Charismatic1]

Seriously??? How about Barbaro?!? His tragic Preakness is just one example of how the Triple Crown goes awry. However, I think Big Brown's Derby is pretty similar to War Emblem in 2002, except War Emblem faced a deeper field. 4 to 5 length win. Completely the best. Hell, both races had the same 1/4 and 1/2 mile fractions. I know this sounds like heresy less than 24 hours after Big Brown bucked history, so my apologies to the Big Brown church.

Having said that, I fully expect him to win the Preakness impressively. But the Preakness hasn't been the problem in recent years. It's that little race called the Belmont that seems to trip up legit hopes even when the others seem hopeless. Smarty Jones loomed over his field and staggered home after insane middle fractions, Real Quiet led by five with a furlong to go and got nipped, War Emblem stumbled so we can't say how he would've done, and obviously many more. That's not even considering the possibility of Barbaro, and near Derby misses like Afleet Alex, Point Given, and Risen Star. After all the inconceivable ways it hasn't happened, I will never again think a horse will win it until the horse actually does it. I don't care how good the horse looks.

I'm not meaning to discredit you. Your "foregone conclusion" statement just smells very familiar to the last time Desormeaux won the Derby with the prohibitive favorite. Everyone knows how that turned out....in an eight horse Preakness field.