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Originally Posted by Gander
How about more pace than in any other of the preps we have seen. I cant think of a single prep that had fast fractions. If 2 or 3 horses go out hard in the Derby, and the stalkers move prematurely, and you have a pace meltdown, Smooth Air is one of about 3 horses who will likely benefit from this and pull a "Giacomo", if you will. Hes got a good chance.
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Well, they went 22.76 and 45.83 in the Florida Derby. That isn't exactly crawling.
He had a very favorable post and a great trip that day, but despite that (and despite the fact that he seemed to be running his guts out in the stretch), he didn't close an inch. The pace was fast enough that day that the horses who were second, third, fourth, and fifth at a 1/4 and a 1/2, ALL finished seventh or worse. It wasn't like they were cheap speed either. Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields were two of the favorites. Meanwhile, the horses coming from off the pace (Tomcito, Cool Gator, Majestic Warrior) ALL finished in the top half. Big Brown obviously ran a very nice race that day, but given the early pace, I have to think that if Smooth Air was really a top-notch two-turn horse, he would have made up SOME ground, or at least have done something in the stretch other than look completely spent.
His previous race in Tampa (the Sam Davis) showed me the same thing. Big Truck simply ran by him at the end.
To me he is a closer that just flattens out in the stretch when asked to go two-turns, and I don't think the increase in distance to 10f can do anything but hurt him.