[Dunbar]

As you say, you have 2 choices, but I'd work the 2nd choice a little differently. If you want to bet on all the other horses, then it's probably better to divide your $20 so that you would collect approximately the same amount on each of the other horses. That means betting more on Ashkal Way then you would bet on Noble Causeway.

As for which of the 2 ways is better, that depends only on what odds you think Artie Shiller will go off at. If he goes off at lower than, then betting on the other horses is better than the Pinnacle prop. You can construct a bet on all the other horses that will pay more than +125 if Artie Shiller is going off at lower than 1-1. At 1-1 it is a tossup.

Here's how to figure it out for various closing odds on Artie. I’m going to assume for the calculation that each of the other horses has an equal amount bet in the win pool (and that you bet the same $5 on each of the other horses), because it makes the calc much simpler, and it does not affect the conclusion.

1. Assume that each of the other 4 horses has the same amount in the win pool.
2. Take an arbitrary amount for the total win pool; say $100,000.
3. Subtract the track take from the Win Pool.
(up to here, the steps are independent of AS's expected odds)
4. Choose AS's odds that you want to test
5. Figure out how much of the win pool would be on AS
6. Figure out how much of the win pool is on the other 4 horses.
7. Figure out how much one of the other 4 horses would pay. (they should all pay the same because of the way you bet.)

If the amount you win is better than what you would have gotten from Pinnacle (+125 on your $20), then the Pinny prop is not as good as betting on the individual horses.

Example, testing AS at 1-1:

1. Assume each of the other horses has 25% of the money NOT bet on Artie.
2. Assume Win Pool = 100,000
3. $86,000 after subtracting track take
4. Assume Artie goes off at 1-1.
5. If we call the amount bet on Artie "X", then ($86,000-X)/X = 1, so X = $43,000
6. 100,000-43,000=$57,000 (amount on other horses)
7. From (1), we assumed Ashkal Way would have 25% of the money that was NOT bet on Artie. So 25% * $57000 = $14,250. AshkalWay would pay:
(86000-14250)/14250 = 5.02 to 1. That's going to be rounded to 5.00 to 1. With your $5 bet, you win 5*5.00=$25.

$25 is the same as the $25 you would win from Pinnacle, so if Artie goes at 1-1, it would appear that it doesn’t matter which way you bet. (But because tote odds of "1-1" will mean anything from 1-1 up to almost 6-5, it will still be better to take the Pinnacle bet.) You can test this by seeing what you'd get if Artie goes off at 6-5)

1-1 on Artie is close to the point where both ways of making the "no-Artie" bet return the same. If you think Artie will go off at less than 1-1, then it's definitely better to bet the 4 other horses than take +125 at Pinnacle. If you think Artie will go off at 1-1 or more, then it's better to take the Pinnacle prop.

--Dunbar