Eric makes many great points.
Todd has set the bar extremely high for himself. Anything less than overwhelming success looks like failure.
Eric also mentions winning maidens and allowances. These are often the hardest horses to have while trying to maintain a high percentage. Every win means a step up nest time. Claiming stock and stakes horses are not required to move up with a win but allowance horses must. Mott's rough start at Belmont last fall bears this out. He won alot of races at SAR but many were maidens (alot of Zayat babies) who were then forced into winning company. That's a huge jump. This brings us to owners.
Some, like Zayat like to call the shots, others will let a trainer have free rein to manage the stock. One or two overbearing owners, if they are significant enough, can throw off the rhythm of how things function in the barn. Pressure for certain objective (the Derby for example) can force a change in course. Todd has won just about everything but a Derby so it's possible that in pointing for Louisville he "overthinks" things and changes his habits. Maybe he's like the brilliant student who doesn't test well.
I tend to think that Todd and Bobby Frankel have struggled with the Derby and BC because they have padded their stats by chosing their spots. By that I mean that if horse X is pointing for "race A" but on the day is less that 100%, they alter course and point for "Race B" a week or two, or a month or two later . Horse wins. Trainer looks brilliant. The problem is that with the Derby or BC, they are no "Race B's" to point for. It's that day or bust.
__________________
RIP Monroe.
|