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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I don't buy the comparisons, Danzig. Flower Alley did not win a TC race, and ran unimpressively in the Derby. That's very different from a Bernardini who won a TC race by major daylight and is undefeated.
I was no War Emblem fan, but he did win 2 TC races, and had an excuse in the Belmont after falling on his nose at the start. Came Home was also poor in the BCC, if I remember correctly. I think MDO just didn't win enough races, but I'd have to go back to check on that.
IMO, if Bernardini wins everything up to the BCC, he does not have to win the BCC to get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. In fact, if I believed otherwise, I'd be all over the Barbaro side of that Pinnacle bet. The chance of Bernardini winning out from here is much much less than even money.
--Dunbar
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firstly, i said bernardini had an advantage because he won a classic race. i guess you missed that--apparently you also missed the fact that bernardini lost his first race, in which he finished fourth. he's won everything since, but he's definitely not undefeated.
also, for several years now i've cautioned others on their prognostications about eclipse awards, esp the 3 yo's...i don't toot my own horn often, but i haven't been wrong yet.
i think flower alley is a legit comparison, especially considering his wins in the jim dandy, the travers, his runs before the derby, and his efforts against older horses.
giving the eclipse out NOW is incredibly premature. the travers hasn't been won yet, but already some are proclaiming bernardini an easy winner--a horse who hasn't even run 10f yet, while many in his age group did so months ago--some better than others of course....
had there been no dual classic winnner last year, flower alley would have gotten the nod. at this point tho, bernardini is ahead of giacomo in accomplishments, but he's not a shoo in.