I like Fairbanks and heres why...
Heatseeker is a polytrack/turf horse who will be an underlay here coming into this in sensational form. Although he is the morning line favorite, I dont think he'll take more money than Circular Quay, but he'll still be a short price. Hes going to be very far back and I dont think the pace will be as hot as people think.
Circular Quay is coming off a monster race besting a terrific effort by Grasshopper and that was his first good race in a long time. Obviously the conventional dirt agrees with him and he alread showed an affinity for Fairgrounds. He stayed closer to the pace than normal and I wouls suspect those tactics will be employed again today. Sure, he can win and is the horse they will have to hold off in here. I think he gets bet down to favortism over Heatseeker and I didnt have him last time at 6/1, so why would I ever bet him today at a shorter price againts better horses?
Tiago might be a better horse on the dirt, but based on one win in the Santa Anita Derby? No thanks. The horse likes to hang with perfect trips and I dont want him at any price.
Faribanks is very interesting in that he should be able to control the pace of the race if Ramon does what he should be told to do. Last time Johhny V was a dummy for wrangling him back off a slow pace. This horse is best on the lead and I think Pletcher's word to ramon is send! Of course Silver Lord is also quick if he breaks with his jockey today and could screw things up for Fairbanks. But as the suspected 3rd or 4th choice, I'll take a shot that he makes the lead and proves uncatchable.
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