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Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
Well said, Dunbar. I am much like you in that I would rather the figures be objective instead of subjective. Let handicappers interpret how the figure was earned instead of adjusting the numbers to "fit" how fast the race was run. While I believe projection methods yield sharper variants, I still like to do some of the work myself. This has been my problem with grasping Thorograph all along. They may or may not have better figures, but it is very difficult for recreational players to interpret their figures because their are so many subjective factors. They strive to deliver the most accurate figures with wind speed adjustments, private clockers, and lengths lost, but you can't put a number on a trip.
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Actually, I think you CAN put a number on a trip. And there's a good chance that some of the sheet guys are better at it than I am, if we both sat down to do the same race. What I worry about is how much attention they can possibly put into each horse in each race.
When I am betting, I am only going to closely look at a few races a day. But the sheet guys have to come up with data on pretty much every horse running every day across the country. I assume that there is a lot of room for error in trying to amass so much information on a daily basis.
Beyer does every horse, too, but his process is WAY simpler since he is NOT trying to factor in all the variables that constitute a trip.
--Dunbar