I think Tomcito is a very good colt. He is a very powerful looking individual, who also looks like he still had room to mature quite a bit from when he was running last year since he was still built downhill.
Tomcito has a lot more upside going into the Florida Derby than Shediak did going into the San Felipe even off the layoff. He has already won several big races routing at 2 on the dirt, but has been off for quite some time. He is a Street Cry who can run all day, and has quite the closing kick. I have only been able to watch the horse on youtube, and the quality is not that great, so it is hard to tell exactly how good he is, but I think he is at least good enough to be in the trifecta in the Florida Derby. He also has a ton of upside for the Derby based on his previous races if he makes it in. He just worked a bullet...5 in 58 4/5 on March 17. Back on Feb. 19, he worked 4 in 46 flat. He's had a couple of breezing 8 furlong workouts as well. Based on his workouts, he is going to be ready to go in this race.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=FZNGTN7ZyJc
http://youtube.com/watch?v=BILxwj40cRA
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0KVzIkFC-_o
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7GfogN7mb0w
I think they are all running for second in the Florida Derby anyway so I won't play the race, but I would be surprised if Tomcito doesn't run a really good race. If I was betting a colt to upset Big Brown, it would be him, but I don't think he is going to get the job done here. Elysium Fields should run a big one as well. I don't think that Hey Byrn is that good.
I can see several horses running a 100+ BSF in this race, which = not slow.