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Originally Posted by justindew
So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.
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Some horses need the lead to win, some don't. Many speed horses are perceived as "need to lead" types until proven otherwise. It may not be 100% accurate, but it may be the way to bet. Azeri proved that she didn't need the lead to win but day in and day out horses who don't get the lead sulk and run last or near last against horses they ought to beat.
Slew proved in the Derby that he could get hit, boxed and blocked and still get to the front. WP had that chance today against overmatched horses and didn't do ANYTHING. if he gets a rough trip and loses to Atoned or BT, I say "OK, he got a lesson." He was dreadful. Either he is a cold frontrunner with no heart for a fight, or something was very wrong with him.
This coming from someone who has him at the top of a published "Derby Dozen List" as of last Tuesday.