Quote:
|
Originally Posted by oracle80
Ok, noone with a brain larger than a pea is going to argue that Bernadini's talent exceeds the talent of 99.999999999999999% of the talent that tbreds are born with.
His Preakness wins and Jim Dandy wins were great. I expect him to win the Travers in grand style. But before anyone annoints him as the greatest ever or speculates on what he will be before he is through, I have to express serious concerns with how much he will accomplish. It centers on his trainer.
I realize Tom Albertrani is a friend of Steve's and a nice guy, but Pletcher, Dutrow,Mott,McGaughey,Baffert,Frankel or Mandella he ain't, to say the least.
Yesterday he sent out a 1-9 shot that he proclaimed was ready to run. The horse was dead short and he ought to be embarassed about sending out a 1-9 shot that overmatched the field who staggered that badly down the lane. Now it was he, not I or anyone else, who spoke in an article on the front page of the DRF about how you had to run them when they wanted to run, he was ready, etc. He obviously misjudged the fitness of the animal and got him beat. Now if he can screw up one like that he can screw up any horse.
Training a horse through a long hard campaign and trying to avoid bounces and have them at optimal fitness level is a very hard thing to do. Were Mandella, Baffert, Frankel,Mcgaughey, Dutrow,Mott or pletcher traning this horse I might agree that he is going to run the table. But they aren't training him, tom Albertraini is. And that my friends is the rub. At this point he is so much more talented than the rest of the three year olds standing that he can beat them on sheer talent alone. But when he goes to face Flower Alley, Invasor and even lava Man its going to be a different story. Only the masters make that leap up with a three year old or into the fray with a developing older horse.
Obviously in the business I feel that the trainer is as important as the horse when you reach the highest level. There is a reason that the same guys win over and over again at the highest level, and its because they are masters of their craft. Raw talent will take you to a certain level and then its as much the trainer as it is the horse.
If the guy can err so badly on Songster(he ought to be very embarassed, the horse wagged his tail down the lane against a field he should have slaughtered), why will he not err in the future with Bernadini? People are creatures of habit, and I just don't trust his trainer to guide him to the highest of all levels.
|
Bit harsh. You're right of course that Albertani is not in the same league as the other trainers but you can't blame him that the horse got bet to 1/9. He didn't look THAT good....
1. At some point they all lose. 1/9 is never a right price. You either pass or decide to single or toss and go wide looking for a big p3, p4 or p6.
2. While Albertani said he was ready, the main goal still had to be the G1, not yesterday's race.
3. If not for the perfect trip he got in his prior race while Bling was getting tripped/ridden out of any winning chance, this horse might have lost that race by 2-3 lengths instead of winning by two. That alone would have made him 3/5 yesterday.
I don't disagree with your premise, I just don't think the horse looked that good. Then again, I'm still reeling from Sunday. A horse that I've thought was sitting on a nice win his last three races at Calder with my favorite So Flo trainer that I sunk $240 into his last three starts at double digit odds was up very slightly in class Sunday. $58 to win. I passed. Go figure.