[Hwjb]

Thanks Chris.


The betting for the two-mile handicap hurdle at Musselburgh today is remarkably one sided, with the unexposed Halla San currently odds on. He was useful on the Flat and won a novice in decent style over course and distance last time and I make him just about the most likely winner of this. However, the price is absurd. The runner-up from that race himself bombed out when made a warm favourite for a similar race to today's here last time, and the time of the novice Halla San won is not as quick as might have been expected for a seemingly well contested event and, on balance, its form I'm happy to take a reserved view about.

If he represents no value whatsoever then Pilca is an astonishingly big price. Declan Carroll did really well with this one after buying it out of a seller from Alison Thorpe, winning a handicap over course and distance on similar ground. He has shaped better than the result suggests on both starts this season, seemingly in need of the run on the first occasion and going well until the rain-softened conditions conditions caused him to weaken at Haydock next time. The booking of Tom O'Brien, who won on the horse for Thorpe is eye-catching, it much the best of his two rides at a course far more northerly than he would normally venture to. All in all the 12/1 Bet365 are offering is a superb each-way bet (I make him about a 7/2 chance or so).

In the same race I'm also having a little on Calculaite each-way at 20/1, as he has conditions to suit for the first time in a fair while (had been tried over fences before encountering ground far too soft last time), and this track suits him down to the ground.

PILCA 3pts e/w @ 12/1
CALCULAITE 1pt e/w @ 14/1