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Originally Posted by pick4
In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.
Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.
Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.
I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.
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Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).
I fully expect him to win this race, at even money