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Originally Posted by stonegossard
He might be brilliant.
But in this case his reasoning is borderline retarded.
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Why the strong language, Boo Boo? It ain't all that.
If you like Brass Hat, you really have to think that he, along with Fairbanks and AP Arrow are the other top ones to beat here. And really, who have any of those beaten, other than themselves?
AP did win the Clark but had a pretty soft trip and just beat BH. He was a bust at Hawthorne at a short number and was life and death to beat Rehoboth at 1/2 at Gulf last year. Frankly, his best race, imo, is his 3rd against Corinthian. He has some shot, I guess, but at 5/1 or so, I'd never use him on top.
Fairbanks looks 6/1 - 7/1 but really, how is he going to win? Against graded horses, he's needed the front and he's not going to get it. He's going to press/pass Daaher and have enough late? No way. For me, he's a top 2 toss/ marginal top 3 toss.
Brass Hat IS older. It does make a difference. He won the Mass off a perfect trip and did the same in his comeback win last year. In both he was closer than he will be in the Donn. The same is true of his Clark. He's going to be in the last 3 early in this race for certain and probably dead last. That is, of course, unless Willie gives him the semi-standard 3w/4w+ around the first turn ride he's given him numerous times.
I don't think he's good enough to overcome a poor trip and I don't think he's likely to close good enough to beat finish in front of both AP and Spring at Last who are both going to have nicer trips and first run from the second flight.
The only way Brass Hat wins is if Einstein and Daaher are both uncontrollable on the front, AP Arrow and Spring at Last are compromised by being too close and Willie saves big ground. It truly has to totally fall apart for Brass Hat to win.
I figure BH will be 5-1/6-1 and his chances of winning are more like 15-1.
I think the 1,3 and 7 are too cheap here and I do not give Einstein much of a shot.
Daaher can obviously win and if you like him, he'll probably be a worthwhile bet simply because Einstein will take far more $$ than he's worth. In fact, Einstein in the Donn alone makes it worth wagering on the race. Daaher looks to me like he'll be within a tick of 7/5.
The horse that could get lost on the board is Spring at LAst. I think he and Daaher and perhaps AP Arrow are the only contenders certain to get the trip they want. I think Spring can rate enough and if he goes off over 4/1, that will be a win play for me. I'll also use him over/under with Daaher and over AP Arrow in the ex.