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Originally Posted by docicu3
Part of my learning process with this place is realizing who is likely to bring a horse to a place you can see on TGH but not necessarily part of the PP's.
Tampa seems to be about being aware of the folks who kick ass there every meet and what to do with them...eg KB,Scarce,Zaide etc...
In Race 7 a turf mile that probably is chalky for the Tampa experts with Jaime Ness/Centeno Dawn Raider or DB with Vanquisher claimed from Mott coming back from 2/3 rds of a year "freshening" with recent solid works but after you decide how serious to penalize the outside posts for bad position in a sprint/route which is how I look at mile races. I see outside posts as a notch less of a threat unless you can flash enough ES to be near the lead within the first half mile.
Does the Tampa Tribunal (Elvis,Bigs,GPK) and anyone else who plays here consistently know anything about the trainer that would support this.
Can you see the #5 Psychic Star who has decent recent closing #'s per Bris and very competitive TGH #'s out of Military who is a 14% turf sire. I know nothing of Carl Cooper or Pablo Morales but if the pattern holds at some point this horse is likely to run a "4" again from these "7"s previously and a 4 may be enough to win here....To be fair previous turf form has been lacking but the #'s are setting up differently now as there may be a X-2 type of move forward here
If he were to win a price would exceed $20 to win......
Again the AE's define the race if in but if the 12,13,14 can be kept on the bench a surprise closing from the #5 may be in the offing.
If I get the time I'll throw out a P4 but for tri's and supers but I see this race as a key to the P4 sequence today as the others may be more predictable on first blush.
3,5,7/3,5,7,10/2,3,5,7,10/2,4,5,6,10
If AE's are in the whole race changes and I'll pass....
Good Luck DT'ers...
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WOW!!! Nice work Doc!
I don't use a terrible amount of technical analysis at Tampa- the place seems to play pretty straight to form and Cooper (5% for the meet) seems to place horses wherever he can fit them in, rather than where they
can win.
I'd like Psychic Star as a contender in that with 5 wins, he's faced much stiffer competition at open clm 16 than any of these others have faced in conditioned claiming efforts or N1X. The huge downside for me is the turf form (0-6), and just don't think he gets to the 3 here. But definately would use under in exotics