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Originally Posted by miraja2
If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.
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I mostly agree and slightly disagree.
If you really think there will be a meltdown then that's how you play the race and you pitch Daaher. I'm not saying I feel this is the case, but if he gets run into the ground, the closers are talented enough to swallow him up.
However, I think he's faster early than Fairbanks, and cheap speed like Kiss the Kid has no realistic hope of competing early or late ( and should be scratched ). Thus, I think while the pace will be reasonably quick, it won't be pressured, and his superiority will likely do this field in.
But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.