I think that it is more of a trainer play. Just have to know which trainers are dangerous when there horses make huge drops. Hooves mentioned Pletcher, he just doesn't seem like the guy that would drop a horse to steal a race.
I personally never bet a horse that runs for a lower tag then claimed next time out, just too fishy for me. Also I am weary when a horse wins and then drops in the next race. As far as purchase price goes, I notice it but do not take it into account to much. I know of a horse that cost 16 million and you would think for that much money he would be able run a little, right?
