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Originally Posted by theiman
Nice projections done by NYRA(without an opinion by an accounting firm?).
$275 a VLT machine is realistic for 2009, then in 3 years, 2012 they are up to $503 per machine? Based on what? How many Racinos do that number?
Ballpark they say the slots will go up by 80% from 2009 to 2012?
Now the good part
If you take out the "projected" VLT revenue for each year NYRA's racing operations are as follows: All #'s rounded for simplicity.
2009 Net revenue $120M Total Expenses $164M a loss of Approx $44M
2010 Net revenue $124M Total Expenses $173M a loss of Approx $49M
2011 Net revenue $129M Total Expenses $177M a loss of Approx $48M
2012 Net revenue $130M Total Expenses $182M a loss of Approx $52M
The above Net revenue was determined by removing the VLT revenue listed on the disclosure statement projections that NYRA made(see page 45 of disclosure statement-or page 51 of the 69 page pdf attachment)
Perhaps this is a simplistic look and I would appreciate any others opinions on the above.
Financing--Well since they relinquish the right to any of the Building and Land there are no assets to secure financing for future loans, aka Another Albany Bailout.
The above were all made based on the opening of the VLT's on Jan 1st 2009, knowing NY construction projects, good luck.
Based on the above, Stronachs operations might be par for the course?
Good Luck to the taxpayers of NY State, I think they deserve better.
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Nonsensical discussion. To have this type of discussion, here, in this type of forum is ludicrous. You are right when you say "perhaps this is a simplistic look" -- it is, and one thing you certainly cannot cannot use in this type of discussion is simplicity. It's not mathematical and it's not linear. It's multi-dimensional.
Be that as it may, this is not a NYRA issue. For the critics, of course it's a NYRA issue. The link doesn't work now so I am not looking at the report, but I don't think one has to in order to see what your mindset is.
Anyway, I don't know what #'s are feasible so I am not sure I believe these #'s myself. I know I didn't believe Richard Bomze when he said the Mdn Specials would be going to $80k. As a matter of fact, besides not being true, I thought there was downside in saying it or believing it. Just like this discussion.
You cannot compare what might happen at Aqueduct (and eventually Belmont) to Monticello. Same thing with Gulfstream (turning out to be a disaster). Tell me about Yonkers though, I would be interested in seeing those #'s, but I think Aqueduct would have far stronger #'s than Yonkers.
If one would want to look at this situation effectively, the last thing you would do is try to be simplistic.
Eric