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Originally Posted by Linny
I don't have the pp's here, but this was a recarding of a cancelled race on THU, which I did handicap. Bailero is a big "back class" horse, with a great record on the AQU main dirt.
I was sketchy on him last time, that $16y race. The win however was good, and though he was stepping well up (conditioned claimers, no matter what the tag are bottom level) that race could be seen as a confidence booster for an old war horse.l
As a public handicapper a (likely) low priced horse like Bailero can be a trap. If he loses and you are all over him at low odds, you look like a moron. There were several decent, in form horses in there to choose, after all. OTOH, he has a winning profile (alot of WINS) and loves AQU and seems to thrive in colder weather, so it looked like all systems were "go."
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Makes a ton of sense. Bailero had 7 starts lifetime at AQU with 4 wins and 2 place efforts coming in...no one else came close to that kind of "track record", literally. It's an angle that I overlook too often I'm afraid. Thanks Linny