He aint done
it was really special that he won the Gold Cup again this year even though it was switched to polytrack.
The dubai trip pointlessly threw him into another situation where he was totally outclassed by the field. It was a high class field trip for the connections.
So close to running him in the classic this would be tough for any horse to hold form.
Lava Man is a rare horse that you can pointlessly run him in the BC or Dubai and he bounces back time and again. This is the most positive indicator that he can still be useful in 2008.
He came back with such a brilliant run in the Whittingham. He showed he still has it.
The synthetic-turf surfaces are just too difficult for Lava Man. He won the Gold Cup edging a weary A.P Xcellent only because of the weak field, his class, the amazing form from the Whittingham and he hadn't yet been conditioned to quit.
The Pacific Classic effectively ended his 2007 campaign. They tried to make the horse run 10 furlongs on an extreme surface. Took a lot out of him and for the first time in quite a while in Cali he was asked to do something beyond his scope.
Lava Man runs near the pace and then strikes the front on the turn. No one wins that way on synthetic-turf. Even in the best form of his life he wouldn't win consistently on these surfaces. On the fast-cushion track at Santa Anita you get 3 or 4 sprinters up on a hot pace for the heart of the race , and then 5 or 6 turf horses all make a run in the stretch. On the Del Mar surface the stretch seems to slant up-hill as 10 furlong dirt horses struggle and strain to climb a mountain of pedigree and stamina. This is "extreme" racing. Only horseracing would run "Xtreme racing" and not profit from it on a cheesy espn show...
Since he can't ship away from the synthetic-turf his only hope now is to look for soft spots on the real turf. Obviously he shouldn't be placed in 1 mile races against classy horses. 9 and 10 furlongs vs. moderate california competition is his remaining option. Races where he can be a controlling speed and his style will actually benefit. The best move would be patience (skipping the tempting Sun Million Turf).
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