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Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Ok, I'll offer my analysis on why LITF didn't win those three races. I have very good explanations on what happened to him.
BC SPRINT-No other horse in the BC sprint had traveled around the country and had a grueling campaign like LITF did last year. Just like LR did in the Derby, LITF was too weary and tired. That is why he gave around the final turn. I believe that the horse's physical problems are a direct result from this race because while the connection's intentions have always been noble, they went a step too far and pushed LITF over the edge.
CARTHAGE-LITF was coming off of a huge layoff and was not fit. He ran into a monster in Carthage in which the trainer of Carthage specifically announced that this would be the only time he could beat LITF. LITF ran a good second to a horse that was 100% fit and ready for this race.
SMILE SPRINT-LITF was never into the race. I don't know how this race can even be debatable. The horse was clearly not himself. You have to watch the races. I think the horse is having some serious physical problems combined with the fact that he didn't take to the track. Something was wrong with him. That is why he may be retired. I mean LITF was seventh at the quarter pole. In what other race in his career has he been seventh at the quarter pole and sixth at the half? NONE. This race can hardly be used to debate that the horse is not good against older quality sprinters. This particular race was clearly indicative of physical problems/not taking to the track. Not that he isn't good enough.
The proof lies within the Aristrides. If LITF was not that good of a horse, the nice Kelly's Landing would have easily beat him. I am very confident in that althought like Rupert, I could be wrong. It definitely wouldn't be the first time.
Also, LITF will never live up to the reputation that has been set for him. He was supposed to be an undefeated horse according to most. He is never supposed to get beaten. Hardly any horses throughout the history of the sport could have lived up the the expectations that have been set for LITF. I really like the horse and I hope they can find out what is wrong with him and fix it. He isn't one of the greatest ever, but he is definitely not as bad or a fraud like some of the posters are making him out to be.
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You called Carthage a monster. Well the problem for LITF in the Smile is that there were 5-6 horse with Carthage type speed. LITF has never shown the ability to handle this situation.
I don't know why it's considered not even debatable that he ran pretty much his usual effort considering the data I posted yesterday.
It happens every day at every track and if you've been doing this awhile you'll know what I mean. Take any horse you want other than a superstar. If you keep moving them up into tougher and faster fields you will find a point where their performances start to decline both in terms of the running lines and the speed figures. Have you never seen a maiden winner with a huge figure like a 90 move up to alw level and lose a close battle to a seemingly much inferior horse.
Why is it just assumed that LITF, if he fires, will win all sprints or at least be in the photo. Why is it? What performance has stamped him with such credentials? What top sprinter has he defeated? The best answer I can come up with is the Aristides when he beat Kellys Landing, a nice G2 or G3 sprinter for sure, but not one that is even ranked amongst the very best sprinters.
Who you are racing against is of fundamental importance.
FYI, look at the pace numbers I posted for LITF to the 1/4 and 1/2 in the Smile. LITF was running his normal pace to the 1/4 and faster than normal to the half. Bottom line he just doesn't have the tools to dominate a field like that. He has only one winning style.
Why is it impossible to think that he fired his best shot and lost?