To be fair....
I think the whole idea, and you seem to be agreeing with this, that any of us can truly know the actual percent chance of any horse winning is folly. I realize some are better than others at this, and surely this will have a real impact on your results, but since for the most part the board is very accurate, the game becomes more about putting together successful wagers than actually believing you understand succinctly what is " value "....a dubious concept.
I can't answer your " dilemma " except to say that you have to decide if the 9:5 is a better bet than the 4-1 or 8-1. Perhaps the answer is to make multi-race bets and use them both. If you think they have similar chances of winning, or at least their chances are closer than the odds reflect, then over time you will benefit.
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