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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I heard your explanation loud and clear as to why LITF got beat in those 3 races. If you believe in those Bris figures, then your assessment sounds logical. I don't buy it. I've watched the horse a million times. I know he didn't fire in those races and I don't think it had much to do with who he was facing. If LITF would have run at Golden Gate this past Saturday against a bad field, I don't think he would have run 1:07 1/5. I think he would have run lousy on Saturday no matter where he ran. I would say the same for Dubai Escapade. She didn't have it on Saturday. If I explained to you that I had some figures that showed that Dubai Escapade ran her best this past Saturday and she got beat because she was totally overmatched, I don't think you would buy it.
I never said that LITF's going :43 1/5 at GG proved he was as fast as anyone. I know the track at GG is scorched and it is hard to compare to other tracks. But LITF has only run at GG a few of times. He's run all over the country. In every race he ever ran last year including the BC Sprint, LITF was always within a length of the lead no matter what the fractions were. I think he can pretty much keep up with anyone when he has it. There may be a few horses that have a little more early speed than him, but he has enough speed so that nobody is going to really get away from him.
To me, a horse "not firing" is not a vague hypothesis. To be a successful handicapper, you have to be a good judge of this. We've seen many really good horses lose. When they lose, we always have to ask the question of whether they simply were not good enough or did they lose because they didn't fire. When Saint Liam didn't hit the board at Santa Anita, was it because he wasn't good enough or was it because he didn't fire? It may have been a combination of both. I would say he definitely didn't fire, but I don't know if he would have beaten Rock Hard Ten even if he did fire. You could argue that RHT wasn't that impressive that day. He only beat Congrats by about a length. Congrats is not a good horse at all. I disagree. I think Congrats ran huge that day. He's never been the same since, but that day he ran great.
Anyway, you're not going to change my mind about LITF and I'm not going to change yours. And even though I'm confident that I'm right, it's possible that I have misjudged LITF. I've been wrong before and I could be wrong in this case. I don't think I'm wrong but it is certainly possible.
There is a chance that the truth is somewhere in between. LITF may not have fired in those races but even if he would have fired, maybe he would have still lost. He may have finished much closer but he may have still lost.
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You're right, no one is changing their mind. I am confident in my view on this.
To me those results have everything to do with who he was facing and little or nothing to do with misfires. In every race last year, he may have been near the lead at the half, but only one time was he beaten badly at the wire. It was at the same track where previously in the year he took a liking to and won a G2 against 3yo's. Hmmm.
What's funny is that I actually am the one that believes that he is running overall very honestly and consistently. Actually I very much admire this horse. OTOH you've got him mis-firing three of the last four races which describe a lesser horse in my opinion.