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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
As far as your question about whether or not someone has made money using BRIS figures ( personally I do NOT advocate computer generated numbers but to each his own ), I understand your point, but I will say that I don't know one successful horseplayer ( and I know many ) who believed the hype last year about Lost in the Fog. In fact, of the successful players I know, I actually ( mistakenly ) liked him more than any of them. I am also a successful horseplayer. I have made money in 14 of the previous 16 years and am well on my way to another successful year. So, if you want to equate successful horseplaying to validity on opinions about LITF, I would say the recent post by Bold Brooklynite pretty much hits the nail on the head. He is a very talented horse but neither as good as his popular reputation nor as good as the top sprinters annually.
Did he run his best race this past weekend? Probably not. But, I would say it is a fairer estimation of his true relative ability, as was his BC performance, than the estimation he seemed to earn while valiantly beating up on vastly inferior competition. Nobody seems to be saying he's a bum. He's hardly that. But, without a very favorable pace scenerio, he is unlikely to be able to handle the top ten sprinters in the country.
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I have a question for you. You say your friends were correct that LITF would not win the BC Sprint. It sounds like one of the things they thought was that LITF was not that good of a horse. He only looked good because he was facing 3 year olds and the 3 year olds were not nearly as good as the older sprinters. Even though LITF was the top 3 year old spriner going into the BC sprint, he would have no chance because the 3 year olds were not as good as the older horses. If this was their assessment, then they were totally wrong becasue two 3 year olds ran 1st and 4th in the Sprint. Did your friends think Silver Train or Attila's Storm had good chances? If not, then you can't say that they called the race so well.