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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I know nothing about Bris pace figures, but are you going to tell me that they are extremely reliable? Do you make money bettting the horses overall by using those figures? Do you usually show a profit at the end of the year by relying on those pace figures? If those figures are so reliable, then how many winning years in a row have you had betting the horses?
Do you understand my point? Here is an anology. Let's say that a guy likes to bet football and he loves the Jets this weekend. The Jets lose. He also loves the Rams this weekend. The Rams lose. The third game he loves is the Eagles. The Eagles win, so he won 1 out of 3 games. He says after the game, "I knew the Eagles would win." In reality he didn't know the Eagles would win. He may have thought they would win but he also thought the Jets and Rams would win. If he's not a winning player overall, then I think it's silly for him to say I knew this team would win for these reasons. He didn't know the team would win. He was just as positive that the Rams would win and he was totally wrong. I think the same could be said about those pace figures. The figures said that LITF would lose those races and he lost. That doesn't prove those figures are reliable any more so than the Eagles winning proves that my football guy is reliable at picking winners.
If you make a profit every year betting the horses by using those Bris figures, then they are probably pretty reliable. If not, then they are like anything else that works once in a while. A guy can say that he knew such and such a horse would win because the horse had the highest Beyer number. What about the other 8 races where the horse with the highest Beyer number lost.
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That’s it? All you have to offer are unrelated questions as to whether I show a yearly profit and analogies about betting football games? I’ve stayed right on topic offering you my take on LITF and backing it up completely with facts. You don’t even mention anything I’ve offered. You merely say that you don’t know anything about Bris numbers. Well you wouldn’t necessarily have had to because I explained everything I posted and it actually is rather hard to deny the patterns. I guess you’re still more comfortable with the vague “he didn’t fire” hypothesis for those races.
Yes the Bris numbers are very reliable. I have improved tremendously using them. Like I said they give you a view of the race that you cannot find elsewhere. I am not touting them as some kind of simple solution to picking winners. Like I said I also relied heavily on replays in order to come to an opinion about LITF’s true class. I use several tools when handicapping. The Bris numbers did not predict that LITF would lose. That was my conclusion after noticing the consistent pattern of his performances. By no means am I implying that these numbers lead me to easy winners and yearly profits, there is much more to it than just looking at numbers. In an earlier post you were trying to back up your assertion that LITF had as much early speed as any horse running by stating that he ran a 43.2 half mile and won by ten lengths at GG. If you want to talk about data that is unreliable, it’s hard to beat looking at raw times.
Also I’m not implying that having an opinion that a horse will not win has much value. However when the horse routinely goes off at odds between 2:5 and 1:1 there is a great chance to make a nice score if you play the rest of the race or races correctly, but that’s no gimme. You can still screw it up like I did in the big pick five last week. I had 4 of 5, of course not using LITF, but I relied too much on Dubai Escapade so I didn’t have the winning combo.