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Old 09-26-2007, 05:50 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
I like the racing at PID that i have watched. It seems fair although I dont think the lead is where i would prefer to be.
I did a half hour earlier today on Steve's show talking about PID.

One of the stats I mentioned, is that speed has actually done very well on the Tapeta there.

Going into today, horses leading at the first call had won 40 of the 168 races run (23.8%) - and some longshots have flat out stole races on the lead - including winners at odds of 45/1, 32/1, and several in the 10/1-to-22/1 range.

Speed is especially dangerous later on in the card - this is either due to the weather change effecting the track - or the fact that the track is being repeatedly harrowed after every race.

Here's a real oddball stat for you guys, PID schedules 8 races every day, in the day's 7th race, the horse leading after the first call has won 10 out of 21 races. Five of the winners at odds of 5/1 or more.

Speed has also been outstanding in Race 8. Though, the nightcap typically features cheaper horses who tend to be ridden more agressively early - while Race 7 is where the days feature race is carded.

Andy Beyer made note in an article a few days ago that the track often speeds up later in the day - the trend is faster times and a more speed friendly surface later on.

As for the "bias" - it's the fact that the rail has been dead pretty much the entire PID meet. It took the riders a surprisingly long time to figure that out, but now you see them all pretty much avoiding the rail altogther.

Post position #1 is 2-for-47 at six furlongs coming into today - and post positon #2 at six furlongs is 1-for-47 coming into today. That's a combined 3-for-94!

* One of the winners breaking from post one was Masters Stakes winner Miss Macy Sue - who was AWESOME in victory and has a legit look in the newly added Breeders Cup F&M Sprint in my opinion.

* The other winner who won from post one at six furlongs was a 1/5 shot shipping in off of a dominant Del Mar victory, to run in a PA Bred race. The horse couldn't lose on paper, and won by 2.5

* And the lone winner who broke from post two at six furlongs - came back to just miss winning at 25/1 last week.

Other interesting PID Tapeta trends:

* Horses who've won over the surface have come back to go 10-for-42 so far. The avg winner paying $10.20. Meaning they've produced a 21.5% profit on the betting dollar. So, it looks like there's something to the theory that horses who handle the surface well deserve a strong look 2nd time over it.

* Turf sprinters have been outstanding! Horses exiting 5 furlong or 5.5 furlong turf sprints have collectively done outstanding on the Tapeta. Especially stretching out to 6 and 6.5 furlong sprints. All horses with less than exciting dirt form - but sold form sprinting on the turf deserve a strong look.

* There have been four horses at the meet so far who have won at odds of 45/1 or greater. In two cases, these horses had LOUSY dirt form and pretty decent turf form. In the other two cases, you had two maiden with terrible lifetime form....but, both had never tried the turf, and both had clear-cut turf breeding top and bottom.
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