[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Octave's just a horse. But she's held solid form for over a year and proved it on many different tracks. Moon Catcher ran good races at Delaware, hardly an indication of genuine ability, and Talkin About Love has beaten lessers with perfect setups. The others are in a different time zone.

You say Octave lost to Dreaming of Anna....yes when she was second to her in the BC and Dreaming of Anna rode a strong bias, and slow pace, to victory. She lost to an in form Mistical Plan off a four month layoff. And, her second to Christmas Kid was on polytrack, while Christmas Kid had form, and Octave had a tougher trip than the winner. I'm not defending her.....I'm just discussing her realistically. She beat Lady Joanne at 1 1/8, but lost to her at 1 1/4, yet you think 1 1/16th is not the right distance for her? You seem to be splitting hairs.

Trust me, I'm not rooting for Octave, but she's absolutely the deserving favorite and the horse to beat. On paper Moon Catcher is not only worse but also at no tactical advantage.

Had JV not gone for the rail and had it cut off by Calvin then Octave might have beat Lady Joanne at both distances. So you know that isn't a valid way to say she will like less distance. Either way I think the distance is absolutely perfect for Moon Catcher and less than optimal for Octave. I will always bet a horse in that situation and will do so here as long as Octave goes off as the favorite as I expect she will.