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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
The dirt mile and 70 is IMO his greatest chance to win. The field will be moderate (who is out there?) and the distance is probably the closest to ideal for him.
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There figures to be a lot of cheap speed in that race...and it's been cheap speed (and one bizarre Gomez ride) that has harassed this horse since the Derby.
While, from a percentage standpoint, it would look as though his chances are a lot better in that race because of the likely steep drop off in competition (unless DC comes back healthy and runs in that race) I think he has the look of a bet-against on race shape alone in the Dirt Mile. Opposite of that, I think he will have the look of an outstanding betting oppertunity, on race-shape alone, in the Breeders Cup Classic.