Hard Spuns chances
Classic- Not very strong
Dirt Mile and 70- Probable favorite(unless Discrete Cat appears)
Sprint- Probably no worse than third choice
Turf Mile- Probably the most unlikely chance
Personally I think that regardless of distance, he is just not as good as Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, AGS, or Curlin. When you factor in the 1 1/4, I dont think he can win the race with Lawyer Ron in it, keeping the pace honest.
The dirt mile and 70 is IMO his greatest chance to win. The field will be moderate (who is out there?) and the distance is probably the closest to ideal for him.
I believe he could be a major contender for the sprint. He is plenty fast enough and the sprinters this year are pretty weak overall. There is plenty of prescedent for a horse of his type to turn back to 6 and win.(Smile, Precisionist, Gulch, etc.)
I give him little to no chance in the turf mile. 1st off despite his breeding, he is not the type that makes the transition stylewise, easily. Secondly, because the American turf horses are exceptionally weak this year, the Europeans that show up will have an even bigger advantage than usual. And Neil Drysdale is not training him. No offense to Larry Jones but Drysdale is a master at these situations and Larry Jones is much better with dirt sprinting types.
I would choose the mile and 70 race but there are other factors at play I'm sure. The least of which is the owners insistence to do things a little screwy. Personally it should not really make a difference whether or not the race is a grade 1 or not because despite the race not being a grade 1, people (breeders) will still consider it as such. The truth is that he has already done enough now (Kings Bishop) for a lot of people to consider breeding to him, though for those who think he will be a successful stallion should realize that there was a reason that there are very few good sons of Danzig standing in the US. I guess what I am saying is that he would be a whole lot better off winning the mile and 70 race or sprint than he would being 4th in the classic or 8th in the turf mile.
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