When you get down to it, its hard to go against the thinking that Shakespeare is flat out better than Kip Deville. But certainly its far from crazy to give Kip Deville a big shot in the BC Mile.
Firstly, it will be his third start off a layoff. After peaking in early spring, his connections tried to kill him at Hollywood, yet mercifully gave him a brief freshening before his return at Monmouth. Quite comfortably, you can tolerate his loss there as a "tuneup".
In the Woodbine Mile, while Shakespeare did surge past him, Kip Deville was pulling clear from the rest of the field and visually seemed to dig in when the winner came up the inside. For all the exuberance over Shakespeare's finish, to me, he merely wore down those horses in the final 1/8th. He seemed to be fastest before the 1/8th pole when he exploded away from Becrux who was rallying mildly at the time.
You can't take away how much ground Shakespeare made up from the top of the lane home, but obviously the Monmouth turf course will have a much shorter stretch. In that regard, Kip Deville has a distinct edge over Shakespeare with his good tactical speed. He will almost certainly get the jump on that rival heading for home.
Finally, if you like to play off of trends, in the most recent BC's, the 2nd tier horses have gotten it done in the Mile. Particularly those with the same sort of tactical speed as Kip Deville, such as Singletary and Artie Schiller.
Shakespeare may finish best in this year's Mile (though he's no cinch given his injury record), but Kip Deville might reach the wire first.
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