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Originally Posted by Phalaris1913
I learned a long time ago that it's impossible to budge an opinion, so I'm not going to waste any more time researching this topic this time around. It needs to be said, however. There are those of us who feel, and have felt for some time, that LITF is overrated and we have some justification to do so.
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It sure is hard. If you tell people he is over-rated you get accused of bashing the horse when all you're trying to do is explain reality. And that is that LITF is way over-rated. He continues to go off at ridiculously low odds compared to his chances of winning. Before the Breeders Cup I studied all his replays and I noticed one thing they had in common, he was able to comfortably dictate the pace and did not have any credible threats. His problem is that in open company against top sprinters he cannot get the lead, which is why I knew he was doomed on Saturday. Horses like Joey P, Gold Storm, etc, have real high speeds to the 1/4 and 1/2, there is no way LITF can run out on that pace and win. Also he does not seem to have a closing kick dimension to him like Nightmare Affair. LITF has a very limited kick. He simply has no answer for top sprinters. He can cruise at a pretty high rate of speed but thats not going to get the job done against top sprinters who usually have to have a sustained accelaration burst at some point in the race.
I think that people that use Bris pace and speed numbers maybe have an advantage in picking this up. Before Saturday there were two times that LITF ran very fast pace numbers to the 1/4 and both of those times he paid for it in the late pace ending up flat, the BC Sprint and his first race of this year against Carthage. In the Aristides he was able to run a 1/4 pace that was comfortable and the result was about as good as it gets for him. In the opening part of the Smile LITF got out of the gate preety good and for a short time he was in the mix. But then the real speedballs kicked it in and I believe Baze knew he had to take back a little. He tried to make a run going into the turn but that's not his game.
There a mass hysteria with this horse and people keep citing his record, 11 wins in 14 starts, several G1's , blah, blah, blah. Ok that was a great 3YO season against a suspect group, but where does that put him now. Forget about the past, he is 1 win in four starts against real competition. They will have to pick their spots for him if they keep racing him, he can win lesser sprints from time to time. However I think they know he does not belong on the path to the BC sprint. With all that said I believe, like others have suggested, that rather than further diminish his reputation that he will be retired.