Quote:
|
Originally Posted by brockguy
I suppose when we talk about a race like this, this early, its very difficult to judge what the ground will be like. If it is soft, Id be wary of backing Manduro, because A), he isnt as good on it IMO and B) it'll make the trip that bit longer!. However, if it is good, I see no reason that Dylan Thomas would automatically reverse Ascot form with him, as long as Manduro is ridden positively...
Fabre is an absolute master at getting his horses spot on for the Arc. He knows what type of horse it takes and I believe him when he says that hes finally figured out how to train this guy. The one Id be wary of is Zambezi Sun. He's unbeaten at Longchamp, by the same connections who won last years Arc and is the same essential type as Rail Link. The Niel will tell us much much more about him.
O'Brien has the usual strong guns to fire for the Arc but Im still to be absolutely convinced by Soldier Of Fortune and Dylan might find one or two too good for him. He couldnt win it with a superstar in High Chaparral (though there were thoughts that he didnt race as well right handed!) so I dont think he'll win this year!
|
I understand what you're saying, and no, we can't be positive what sort of ground they will be racing on come Arc day. However, what we can be sure about is the proven stayers making sure it is a proper test of stamina..... unlike most French races over this distance.
With Manduro showing so much speed over a mile last time, it puts plenty of doubt in my mind about the Arc. Fabre loves to win this race, and is this the only reason he is running in it? The owner wants to win it, too. That isn't always the best way to look at it though, the owners and trainer's desire to win something often overlooks the horse..... and that might be happening with Manduro. They are so keen to win the Arc that they might just have convinced themselves that he will stay.
They are some great races over 10 furlongs this Autumn, and honestly, i cannot understand why he isn't being pointed to the Champion or the Irish Champion.
I love Manduro and i think he is a superstar, but i don't think he will win the Arc.
Regarding Dylan Thomas. I think he has the ability to reverse form with any horse over his proper trip, which is 12 furlongs.