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Originally Posted by oracle80
And herein lies the problem. Joel hes a very sharp guy, and whos he by or what he does for work is really not an issue in relation to his knowledge of the game. You don't have to work for a track or a trainer or a newspaper to posess a hell of a lot of knowledge about this game. You also don't have to have been raised around them. Some people have a very fast learning curve, in many things.
YOu may want to realize that as much as you may know, there are people who know more, or as much. And there are many facets of the game. Analyzing races once they are done is an important skill, but it isn't necessarily related to predicting outcomes, a skill in this game that is decidedly more valued. So far, your after race analysis has been good, but your predictions have been few and less so. To really impress people you have to put it out there BEFORE the race, not after.
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That's funny, I get PMs all the time when about my pre-race analysis, especially on 2YO races at CD....to say that I don't pick out horses before the race is like saying that evey horse that you bought has been as successful as Wonder Lady Anne L, which would just be wrong and a total lie....I DO NOT offer a lot of STEAM and HARD analysis on this forum...Gus and KaSept do a lot more of that than I do...I prefer to give analysis on 2YOs becuaes that is a group of unknowns and I get to watch them all breeze at CD, so I can provide some value information that you CANNOT get anywhere else....ask anybody who follows my 2YO analysis and they will tell you that I'm very informed there.....I don't offer normal handicapping because ANYBODY can view pps on the 3rd at Aqueduct and give an opinion....they are a dime a dozen.....if you listen to my analysis advancing stakes on Friday on ATRAB, I usually give an overview of the race and how I think it will play out, but I rarely make a SELECTION because I give my imput and let people implement my overviews into there handicapping style and MAKE THEIR OWN OPINIONS on the race....you cannot develop horse players by TELLING them who to bet...you have to tell them why you think a race will unfold a certain way and then let them factor that in and pick a horse for themselves - that is TRUE analysis IMO and the greatest service you can provide people in this industry...Hell, I know I like to listen to people's view on races and how they will play out, BUT I do not listen to people's selections and most people shouldn't..
Example: I have already stated that I thought that Seaside Retreat would provide great value this weekend at 5-1+, but if I were handicapping the race I can see that KD is LONE speed and will be tough to catch as the favorite (he will be the fave, not Steppenwolfer IMO)....the race sets up for KD wiring the field...that is handicapping, but I will not PICK KD on Friday on the radio...I will state that I believe that Seadside Retreat should run big and appears to be teh best new shooter, but that KD will get the best set up and will be the horse to catch and beat.....I won't say "PLay a SR / KD exacta box for 50 units"....I don't do that stuff....
If you know anything about racing you can tell which way I'm leaning most of the time, but I'm a board player...I play value ad I pick my spots, and the only wagers I usually play are 3-horse EX boxes (when value is created), Pick 3s and 4s, and WP wagers with the PLACE always being twice of what I bet to WIN.....