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Originally Posted by cmfhb411
Dick Jerardi wrote "Story behind Lawyer Ron's 116 Beyer"
on Monday. To get a look on the drf.com website, you have to be a subscriber. So I can't leave the link here.
I can tell you all, this is a very typical adjustment from BSF, in this situation.
This is something I have taken advantage of, at the windows more than a half dozen occassions in the last 3 years. A big reason, I won't take their figures seriously, and haven't for more than 8 years now.  |
Basically, the article says that Mark Hopkins, who creates the Beyers at Saratoga, made a judgement call. If he gives Lawyer Ron a 123, which the variant for the day called for, then the next few horses behind him would have made some big improvements in Beyers as well, namely Wanderin Boy at 113 and Diamond Stripes at 111. Wanderin Boy's 113 would have matched a career high earned at the old lightning fast dirt Keeneland and Diamond Stripes would have improved from his career high of 106.
I don't understand how this was thought to be so improbable, though. Wanderin Boy ran a great race in the Whitney and I thought that Beyer Speed Figures took into account the speed of the racetrack, even if it is a speed favoring Keeneland of old. Diamond Stripes was a lightly raced 4 year old that had run 106-105-104 in his last three with not-so-great trips. It seems to be a good bet that he would improve this time out as he is still developing. Both of these horses were most likely being trained to give a top performance at the Whitney as well.
I understand that creating figures is not always black and white, but the "there's no way these horses improved" argument doesn't exactly fit here.