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Originally Posted by King Glorious
I doubt that anyone is under more scrutiny in sports these days than Barry Bonds. I don't think he could get away with using ANYTHING these days. Yet here he is, into his 40's and STILL with 17 hr's thus far this season. The other day, he even stole another base. I think it's great as well as deserving for him to be on the all-star team and I can't wait till he breaks the record. This is how I look at it. It is alleged that Bonds started with the steroids after watching McGwire and Sosa go crazy in 1998. Through that season, he had hit 411 career homers. He proceeded to hit in the upcoming seasons.......34 (in 102 games due to injury), 49, 73, 46, 45 and 45. So let's say that he was on something during that time and if he hadn't been, he would only have hit 35 per season during that stretch. That 35 per season average, certainly not unrealistic based on what he was doing up until that point, would give him 210 more homers. That would put him at 621. The next season he only played 14 games and only hit five. In a full season, give him another 25. That would put him at 646. He came back to hit 26 last year. That's 672 and he's got 17 this year which would be 689. It's not hard to see how he could be at the 700 mark, give or take a few, without taking anything at all. Now, I know some are wondering if projecting him to hit 35 a season during that six-year stretch might be giving him too much? I don't think so. During that stretch, he went from 35 to 40 years old. How many homers did the other two guys that have hit the 700 mark hit during those same age years?
Aaron:
797 games and 223 home runs, averaging 37.2 per year and hitting one every 3.57 games.
Ruth:
713 games and 198 home runs, averaging 33.0 per year and hitting one every 3.60 games.
So giving Barry 35 a year and 210 total in the six-year stretch after he is alleged to have started the steroid use is not giving him too much. But do people know that between 35 and 40, Ruth went over 40 hr's three times, including hitting 49 one season? Or how about that Aaron did it three times also, including setting his career high with 47 at age 37? Aaron was actually more productive from 35-40 than he had been from 30-34.
All of this is to say that it's very conceivable that Barry could still be right around the 700 mark or maybe even over 725. He probably wouldn't be nearing Aaron's record at this point though but could conceivably have done so with the completion of this year and by playing next. For me, the record is not tainted at all. And one thing that people forget is that he spent quite a few years in Pittsburgh and playing at Candlestick, neither of which were the easiest parks to hit home runs in. The dimensions of the park Barry plays in now have been one of the reasons his numbers have gone way up but nobody looks at that. Nobody recognizes the fact that Ruth was hitting to a right field fence that was under 300 ft away while the fence in Pittsburgh was around 335 ft or so. If Barry could have spent his entire career in Yankee Stadium, he might be around 850 home runs non-steroids and 1000 if he's actually been on them.
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You make some great points. I honestly believe that if he hadn't hit 73 he would not be nearly as big a villian. If he had hit 59 that year, he would not be liked but I just think that he would not be as hated. that one year just kind of looks out of whack which makes people more leery of him.
Not to be picky but 2 points. Aaron benefited from a rule change in 1969 when the mounds were lowered which may have aided him during his 35-40 years along with playing in a stadium with very favorable HR conditions. Ruth's later years were also spent in an envirorment where there were many more HR's hit than when he was in his 20's.
Though Ruth was damn good in 1920 hitting 54 HR's to 19 for runnerup George Sisler, his 1921 season was amazing. He hit 59 HR's, had 171 Rbi's, scored 177 runs, had 44 2b's , 163bs, 457 total bases, hit .378, had an .512 On base average, walked 145 times and created 233 runs. All in an era where the second leading home runs for a team was Philadelphia with 82.
BTW- they were playing in the Polo Grounds during those years, not Yankee Stadium.
Of course both Ruth and Aaron were finished as players after 40, where Bonds continues to be a productive player in a weak lineup