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Originally Posted by ShadowRoll
I don't totally discount the "hot barn" theory, because I'm a strong believer in cycles, but unless I also know that the trainer just got a new, more capable assistant, or that the trainer just picked up a new, wealthier owner (and now has better stock), or that the trainer just got married (or has some other reason to approach his or her job with renewed enthusiasm), I tend to use "hot" status only as a tie-breaker if I'm stuck on who to back.
Also, a trainer might have won 10 out of his last 15 starts, but without taking the time to go back and look at those races, I can't give this statistic much weight. If the 10 he won were all claimers, and the 5 he lost were all maiden races, and I'm capping a maiden race today, the trainer's "hotness" is pretty much irrelevant.
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Shadow,
You have put out insightful stuff. Thanks.
I'm not disagreeing with you.
As I said earlier, it's "short term".
An old surfer guy once told me, "Catch the wave, ride it out."
I'd be interested to hear what others think.
Again, thanks for your input.