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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I agree that trouble is never more overrated than when it happens during the slowest part of the race....and also that racing wide while the pace is so slow is no disadvantage at all...as you're in the clear and really giving nothing away. And Belmont is just about as forgiving a track as any to be wide on.
In the Belmont, the meaningfull ground loss would be on the final turn...when the real running was finally starting.
Ground loss is most severe in real fast-paced two-turn races, with a short run into the first turn. If a horse gets hung wide while gunning for the lead in that situations...he's a very likely candidate to tire markedly later on in the race, as those type of horses often run well below form.
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Ground loss is ground loss is ground loss. If they were running on a track with a severe dead rail then it is not as big of deal because there is an X factor that is slowing the inside paths down that negates the ground loss.
A perfect example of this is just about any 2 turn long grass race. Usually the pace for longer grass races is moderate and saving ground is of the utmost of importance in these races.