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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I think many people had it set in their minds that they wanted to take a negative position against Curlin after that supersonic fast debut win he had. If you look at the other 'raw' and unadjusted Beyer numbers run by horses on the same card that day......
Invasor (118)
Curlin (112)
Nobiz Like Showbiz (108)
Scat Daddy (103)
Cowtown Cat (96)
You'll see how remarkable a debut performance it was. Only Discreet Cat had done anything comparable to that, in debut, in all my time following horse racing.
Curlin was all over the racetrack that day--and really didn't seem to have everything figured out yet either.
I think there's always an assumption that horses who win like that in their debut are injury prone horses, who don't have a strong constitution and who struggle to stand up to the rigors of racing. Horses like Discreet Cat and Ghostzapper being a couple of prime examples...though both were handled with EXTREME conservatisim.
Each horse is their own entity though...and I agree with you...Curlin hasn't always got the kind of respect from the public...that a horse who is simply the most talented in his crop deserves to get.
He's only about four months removed from that big debut win---and, if he stands up and runs his race yet again....he'll be a four-time Graded Stakes winner and a duel-classic winner. Very few horses in history have achieved so much so soon in their career....but, this horse has always shown MAJOR TALENT!...and has been lucky enough to have been born into a fairly low-rated crop of 3yo males.
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I agree, but the key word in all of this is "males." I have little doubt that he will beat all of the males in the race today.......but that doesn't mean he is going to win.
I doubted Rags before the Oaks........now I am a believer.